Snow is in the forecast for the Smoky Mountains this week after we experienced a couple of weeks of nearly record warmth. A few days flirted with 70 degrees in the mountains, but it was at or above 50 most days since Christmas. It’s not unheard of for a few days like that in the winter, but what was so unusual was the exceptionally warm nights. Many nights had lows in the 50’s which is essentially what we expect in May.
Right now we’re seeing water temperatures down in the 30’s, so this is a dramatic shift. Water levels are better, but still a little on the low side for mid-winter. This should improve with more moisture in the forecast.
While nothing is concrete, you can usually expect more roller coaster temperatures before spring arrives. We often go back and forth between cold and mild. The mild weather is typically accompanied by rain and the coldest weather is on the backside of those rainy fronts or completely dry.
Be sure to fish deep and look for some sunshine to stir some activity. Little Winter Stoneflies, Little Dun Caddis, and few Blue Wing Olives are your best hope to get the fish moving this time of year.
Don’t expect any great dry fly fishing until late February at the absolute earliest. Quill Gordon and Blue Quill mayflies are the first real hatches of the year. In a typical year they start showing up in early March, but if there is unseasonably warm weather in mid to late February they can get an early start. Warmer water temperatures are certainly a stimulus to get them going, but it always seems like they are best in March even if they do start early. Perhaps the length of the day is just as important as the water temperature, but neither the bugs nor the trout will tell us.
An Early Brown Stonefly Nymph
Early Brown Stoneflies are another insect that start hatching early and their mature nymphs will begin moving around soon. Several flies will imitate them well including Pheasant Tail Nymphs, Prince Nymphs and Tellico Nymphs among others.
This is always the toughest time of year for fly fishing in the Smokies, but it’s always followed by one of the best times. That’s less than two months away!
